A Second Quad? Coalition between India, Israel, USA and UAE

India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar held a virtual conference with his counterparts from the US, Israel, and the UAE on the 18th of October.

The virtual meet

He even visited Israel accompanied by the Israeli Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid while US secretary of state Antony Blinken and UAE foreign minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan participated virtually. The meeting was agreed to utilize complementary capabilities to fulfil overlapping interest and strengthening the strategic partnership at a quadrilateral level in middle east. The four countries plan to hold an in person meeting of the ministers in the coming months at Expo 2020 in Dubai.

HOW DID IT COME INTO BEING?

The signing of Abraham Accords, 2020

One of the events that enabled this cooperation was the historical turn in the most troubled region in the geopolitics of the world during the pandemic, when Israel and the United Arab Emirates signed an agreement called the Abraham Accords to normalize their relations which could also be traced as the genesis of this four-way cooperation or Quad-2 as some people are calling it. For the longest time there’s been hyphenation in the middle-east, you’re either anti-Israel and pro- Arab or vice versa and this hyphenation was a dilemma for India as well as it could not get involved too much with any of the sides in order to not disturb its relations with either the Arabs or the Israelis. This was clashing with India’s interests at times. However, the Abraham Accords opened the door to many opportunities for India to play a larger role in that region. This would also be instrumental in making the conflicted region of gulf a bit more stable because of the involvement of two outside powers along with Israel and the United Arab Emirates cooperating.

WHY IS USA A PART?

Currently USA is in a place where its re-evaluating its relations and policies in the middle east. Its shedding off the Iran chapter, at the same time re-analyzing its partnership with Saudi Arabia. All of this is happening at the time of the Iran Nuclear deal. So as its withdrawing from Afghanistan as well, it’s trying to find better positions and creative ways to form relations so as to stay engaged in the region. There’s another major and a fairly obvious reason which is the noticeable impact China’s rise as a super power is having all across the globe including the middle east. For instance in 2015, Israel sold a section of its busy commercial port called Haifa to a Chinese company called Shanghai international port group. Three years too late, the US starts to show its concerns as Israel nuclear submarines were housed in an area in extreme proximity to the Haifa Port. In 2020, the US offered to inspect the dock occupied by China but Israel’s then Prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu refused it. The US is concerned that China is using the port as a cover for its intelligence operations.

Again during the pandemic, UAE turned to American companies for help with PPE kits and vaccines but USA itself being in a disgruntled state could not provide aid. This opportunity was seized by China and the first vaccine that became available in UAE was Chinese. Hence, this power rivalry between China and the USA has lead to them seeking to rearrange their positions in the gulf. Moreover, similar circumstances in the Indo-Pacific region previously led to the formation of Quad-1, to constrain or contain the rising influence of China. Although India is of the opinion that the considerations of quad-1 are to be non-military.

INDIA’S INVOLVEMENT:

India has always had friendly, diplomatic and a very constructive relation with both United Arab Emirates and Israel as is very evident today. However, India and Israel weren’t always on such interactive terms. Before, there was no official communication or

S. Jaishankar with Yair Lapid in Israel

interaction between the two nations. It was Narsimha Rao who upgraded India’s relations with Israel to full diplomatic level in 1992. Until then India had recognized Israel as a nation in 1950 following queue from the soviet block and hadn’t initiated any diplomatic ties. And today its India’s major defense partner and weapons supplier. Israel’s foreign secretory Alon Ushpiz said that Israel wants to incorporate India into the opportunities emerging in the region ahead of S. Jaishankar’s visit to Israel on October 18.

Hence, as India has bilateral ties with UAE, Israel and USA, it made immense sense for them to initiate a four-way cooperation in order to bring more stability in the gulf and also create huge trade opportunities and all other different fronts. The official statement for this meeting in Israel reads that the ministers from four nations discussed a range of issues including climate change, inner cooperation, maritime security, and expanding economic and political cooperation in the respective regions. They also focused on post-covid-19 economic recovery and ways to boost trade and ensuring supply chain resilience and cooperation in science and technology.

Its too soon to tell if another quad is developing but it could be said that this is the foundation of one. Even if it’s not a quad, it’s definitely a step in the right direction with it’s significance being UAE’s capital, Israel’s technology, India’s influence over the Indo-pacific region with its stand on China and cheap labor and America’s ability to weave these nations together into a cooperation to contain China’s expansion of its influence.

Moreover, this cooperation would also help in eliminating some of the bad blood and friction between Israel and the Arab nations, thus bringing the much needed peace in the middle east.

First meeting of Quad-1 leaders in March 2021

As for India, it’s a win-win situation because it’s not only a part of quad-1 which enhances its influence in the Indo-pacific but also a part of this upcoming coalition in the gulf, thus expanding its influence to both these parts of the world with the help of its relations with USA.